What is science or, perhaps, more importantly, how does
science progress? A rudimentary understanding of the answers to these questions
is necessary to fully participate in the any debate concerning scientific
issues. While, for years it has been clear to me, as a science educator, that
there are many misconceptions among the general population of nonscientists regarding
the very nature of science, I was finally moved to write about this after listening
to a recent exchange between Horace Cooper
of Project 21 and
Bill Maher on the June 28, 2013 episode of HBO’s Real Time.
After Maher stated that 97% of climatologists agreed that global warming
existed (we may discuss the source of this number in a future blog) and that
human cause was a factor, representing a clear scientific consensus, Cooper
responded that the small percentage of dissenters should not be ignored. He
went on to state that scientific progress occurs when an individual stands up
against consensus. Mr. Cooper said, “I don’t want to hear about consensus, I
want to hear about science.” Setting
aside the motives for his support of the counter prevailing view, let’s examine
the validity of Mr. Cooper’s argument by asking the following questions:
- How does science progress?
- Is dissension important for scientific progress?
- May we use dissenting views as justification to refute scientific consensus?
While the nature of scientific progress has been studied
extensively by philosophers of science, I will explore these questions from my perspective
as a practicing scientist.
I start by examining the role of the scientist. In my
view, a scientist must be an open-minded skeptic. Does this descriptor seem counter-intuitive? Perhaps. But, let's take a closer look. How does a scientist go about
the task of doing science? She collects and analyzes data, developing a theory
if warranted. When presented with new data or a new theory, she must be
naturally skeptical, asking questions about methodology and analysis. Are the
data reproducible? Are there alternative interpretations? Can new experiments
be developed that test these interpretations? If the data and/or theories survive
these stages of skepticism, then the scientist must be open-minded enough to
accept the results as possible, even those which may contradict a currently
held view. The ensuing scientific debate can be messy, but as additional data
are presented that support a new theory, more scientists come to accept it and
consensus is built. However, the process does not stop there; theories are
constantly tested as more data are gathered. If inconsistencies develop, then
the process begins anew and the old theory may be modified or rejected
outright. Occasionally, an individual or small group may present a radical
alternative that, while being met with resistance from the scientific
community, may ultimately, through the process discussed above, build acceptance.
Thomas Kuhn, noted
philosopher of science, described such revolutionary developments—which have become
known as paradigm shifts—in his seminal work The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. So, although
scientists are human and may be resistant to change, science itself is a
dynamic, anti-dogmatic process. Consensus is critical to this process because
it is the best way to assess the validity of an argument. Is consensus
sometimes wrong? Yes? Is the process occasionally messy? Yes. But, without
consensus, how are we to distinguish between the many theories that may be
presented? We cannot deny the plausibility of a theory based on personal
beliefs. Hence, Mr. Cooper’s statement about wanting to hear about the science
and not the consensus is fundamentally wrong; consensus is a necessary part of
the scientific process.
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